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Dating the end
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CAMBRIDGE September 20, 2010 - The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion.
At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II.
The committee believes that these quarterly measures of the real volume of output across the entire economy are the most reliable measures of economic activity.
Second, in previous business cycles, aggregate hours and employment have frequently reached their troughs later than the NBER's trough date.
Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973--82, both of which lasted 16 months.
In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity.
The committee concluded that strong growth in both real GDP and real GDI in the fourth quarter of 2009 ruled out the possibility that the trough occurred later than the third quarter.
The committee designated June as the month of the trough based on several monthly indicators.
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